Will Joe Biden be polling first in the 2020 Democratic Presidential race, by June 12?
At expiration of this market, at June 12 12:00 AM GMT-00:00, will Joe Biden be the person polling above all other candidates, in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, according to the average of recent major polling?
Source is the Average shown on RealClearPolitics' 2020 Democratic Nominee page, located at the start of this market at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html. Should RCP host more than one version of this page at closing, at any urls, the most recently updated page will be the one considered.
Should RCP no longer have such a page available, at any url, or should there be any ambiguity, the next source will be the averages on HuffPost Pollster. If ambiguity remains, the most recent Morning Consult poll, for all democrat primary voters, shall be used.
If Biden is not listed in any of the above, then this market shall resolve as No.
If Biden is not listed in any one source, the source shall be treated as having ambiguity.
A tie in a set of numbers shall not be considered ambiguous, and shall resolve this market to no.
Biden not running for president shall, in and of itself, have no effect on resolution.
A snapshot of website sources is not needed, if the site both the night before and the morning after shows a consistent result.